Many of us woke up on the morning of November 9, 2016, with the news that Donald Trump had won the presidency despite the best poll estimates. Spring Street Exchange was a brand-new firm at the time, and we were looking for ways to connect with clients. I began to email and call people, mostly with regional health plans, but also providers and vendors. With each person, I asked what their organization’s plans were in the case of a Trump presidency.
Very few people (if any?) I talked with had anticipated the election outcome, and most said their goal was to wait until more information was available to see what could happen next. Many seemed interested in trying to speed their way to an answer and professed to some kind of insider scoop from a reliable source, such as a connection to the campaign or the transition team. Yet, the various insider expectations were wildly contradictory at the time, and virtually none came to pass.
While the industry was grappling with this uncertainty, it became clear that no one had a definitive answer. In these conversations, I sensed an eagerness to move past the ambiguity, with many trying to piece together insights from various sources. This atmosphere of unease prompted Spring Street Exchange to step forward in a meaningful way. We decided to host our first industry-wide scenario planning round table, which ultimately grew into what we now call Scenario Palooza.
Uncertainty is a Human Nemesis
Humans are great at many things (Art! Music! Laughter!), but we are not so good at dealing with uncertainty. Our resistance to uncertainty likely evolved for good reason. The brain is always working to anticipate what’s coming, enabling it to prepare both the body and mind to respond to an unpredictable world. But when faced with unknown circumstances, this preparation is much more challenging – and in situations involving potential threats, like predators or hostile humans, a wrong move could be fatal. Consequently, it may have been advantageous to lean toward caution, either by steering clear of uncertain situations altogether or by shifting the brain and body into a heightened state, primed to adapt quickly to whatever happens next.
Because we tilt toward definitive answers, when we are faced with an uncertain situation, our natural instinct can be to go to experts for their predictions. In doing so, we are seeking additional information to reduce or eliminate uncertainty. This is a good instinct; informed predictions are likely better than uninformed ones, but the trouble is that ‘experts’ are no better at predicting the future than non-experts.
Uncertainty, by its very nature, refers to something that is multifaceted and unknowable – the universe is too complex for experts to account for all variables. But this doesn’t mean our only option is to remain in the dark until the future unfolds – we do not need to be able to predict the future in order to plan for it.
Navigating Uncertainty with Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is a powerful tool for managing uncertainty in complex environments or when the future is truly not known, such as how an administration will unfold after an election. Scenario planning embraces the inherent unpredictability of the future by equipping leaders to explore multiple plausible scenarios. The goal here isn’t to predict the future, but rather to understand a range of possibilities. The true reality is likely to be some amalgam of the scenarios. Some benefits include:
Reduce Surprises: By identifying and examining different potential futures, organizations are less likely to be blindsided by unexpected developments.
Enhance Decision-Making: Scenario planning encourages leaders to consider long-term impacts and various alternatives, leading to more resilient and informed decisions.
Encourage Agility: When an organization has identified the impacts and how it will respond in a range of scenarios, it can adapt more easily to real-world changes, shifting resources or approaches as needed.
Build Consensus: The collaborative nature of scenario planning often involves input from various departments or stakeholders, which can align teams and ensure a shared understanding of potential risks and strategies.
Ultimately, scenario planning enables companies to anticipate and proactively respond to change rather than reacting to events as they unfold. Because scenario planning makes future variables seem more real, it can help to ‘land’ uncertainty with potential discrete futures that can be named and easily discussed. And the cool thing is that engaging in scenario planning is high-impact and low-cost.
Scenarios and the Incoming Administration
As the new administration takes shape, we will gradually gain insights into cabinet appointments, policy priorities, and the Congressional agenda. Although it may seem prudent to delay planning until more details emerge, this reactive approach can leave organizations unprepared.
Instead, I recommend a proactive strategy that both addresses uncertainty and positions your organization strategically. A key factor to assess early on is whether the administration will adopt a constrained, continuity-focused approach or pursue a radical departure from current governance norms. This distinction will significantly influence planning, advocacy, partnerships, and other strategic decisions.
By centering on this dimension now, your organization can start scenario planning, establishing a foundation that can be refined and adapted as new information becomes available.
A scenario cadence related to federal policy could include:
Acting quickly can help leaders feel more active, engaged, and grounded in their ability to plan and move forward despite the uncertainty, thereby reducing anxiety.
I’d love to hear how your organization uses scenario planning, and I’m always happy to share my perspective! Drop me a line – we’re in this together.
Peace,
NW