Book Review: AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future

AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future, by Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan

Robin’s head was spinning. Hacking their account would require four thousand qubits of computing power. “How is this possible? There’s no such machine on Earth…” 

All the screens in their hideaway dimmed at the same time. There was only the buzz of electrical current as no one spoke.  

“It’s over.” Lee signed, his expression wooden.  

The lines above set the scene of a catastrophic heist in 2041 that uses quantum computing to steal bitcoins sealed in a historic vulnerable key from back in the early 2020s. The book, titled, AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future, by Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan is an engaging and thought-provoking read that uses both story and analysis to sketch out ten stories that illustrate ways that artificial intelligence (AI) could sculpt our world over the next two decades.  

Each story is set in a different corner of the globe and addresses a few aspects of how AI could impact our lives. Rather than the doomsday scenario often associated with future-thinking related to AI, these tales reveal both risks and also ways that human interaction with AI can overcome the challenges. Concepts explored include custom education and even friends for children; new forms of currency and attribution of value; risks related to personal data, history, and bias; self-driving vehicles; a transformed robotic and human workforce; potential ways that single bad actors could wreak havoc, and more. After each tale authored by Chen Quifan, Kai-Fu Lee unpacks the technical capabilities of AI and how they could develop over the next few decades.  

Published in 2021, amidst the pandemic and before AI's surge into public and business spheres, this book is bold and insightful. And yet, just two years later, many of the future possibilities anticipated for 2041 are already available today. The capabilities of AI and computing capacity have developed more rapidly, even since 2021, than the authors envisioned.  

For instance, the book contemplates a world in 2041 where a young adult seeking to work in finance is devastated and surprised to discover that AI could prepare a company profile as well as an analyst could – something that would hardly make my current 17-year-old blink today. It’s a sobering realization that some of the world’s deepest thinkers about AI had dramatically underestimated how quickly its capabilities would advance.  

As I stand at this metaphorical base camp of a new age, our calling in the healthcare industry has never been more profound. At Spring Street Exchange, we work with clients in driving change in healthcare, that keep values around equity, fairness, quality, and consumer-centricity at the core. Because healthcare has been slower to evolve than other sectors of the economy, the industry is likely to face an especially transformative period in the years to come. We have an opportunity and responsibility to ensure that the capabilities of new tech reach and enhance the lives of those who are too often left behind. Our goal can be not just to create greater efficiency of our current model, but to sculpt a better and more equitable future that this tech enables.  

At Spring Street, where we delve deep into scenario planning and future visioning, our aim is never to predict but to explore. I loved how Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan chose to envision the future with a focus on us all as authors and creators rather than just passive observers. Although the authors highlight risks, the book is also infused with visions of how AI and new technology can be used to address inequities and drive toward a greater good for all.  

If much of what these authors expected to occur in 2041 is already just around the corner, we have a lot of work to do. A first step could include our visioning workshops that can be experienced by executive teams and boards to explore some of the near and long-term new tech and changes on the horizon. ‘Trying on the future’ as these authors do, creates a profound sense of interest and urgency in addressing the opportunities before us.  

Till we talk next,  

Nancy 

ChatGPT and the Future of Healthcare

ChatGPT, Dr. Seuss, Soup, and Internal Innovation Studios 

Like most curious futurists, I’ve been enjoying exploring what ChatGPT can do. For those who haven’t tried it yet, ChatGPT is a Chatbot prototype that was launched by Open AI in November 2022. It is a ‘generative pre-trained transformer (GPT)’ which has been programmed / trained to mimic human conversation. Its many capabilities include writing and debugging computer programs, writing student essays, answering test questions, and even writing poetry and songs. I have used ChatGPT for a soup recipe I can make with the ingredients in my fridge, and it suggested a plan to take my son on college tours. ChatGPT has even described social determinants of health (SDOH) in the style of Dr.Suess (you can view at my LinkedIn post here).  

At Spring Street Exchange, we have working with future-thinking healthcare organizations to prepare for what’s next. When we look at planning in short-term cycles, we tend to assume that the future will be similar to the past. This makes it easy to dismiss the very real breadcrumbs of change on the horizon. When we suggest that the next ten years will include more change than the past thirty, I have sometimes felt like the woman crying wolf. However, with the disruption spurred by the pandemic and more immediate competitive threats, many healthcare organizations are now embracing longer-term strategic planning.  

Looking at longterm change can be a daunting task. After all, the fastest adoption of any innovation in the history of humanity, ChatGPT, was something that, until recently, most of us didn’t even know could be possible. Robert Pearl’s vision for how ChatGPT could transform healthcare suggests how this functionality could be used to emulate the way clinicians make decisions and to provide ongoing care outside of the medical office. As technology improves, and as our thinking catches up with its capabilities, it seems certain that the greatest impact that an AIChatbot could have in healthcare has not yet been envisioned. After all, it’s only been a few months.    

So, I thought I’d ask ChatGPT about the future of healthcare; ‘it’ answered me with some meta thoughts that you can see it in the response below. ChatGPT has an “I” identity, even though ‘it’ doesn’t have a name like the helpful ‘Siri’ and ‘Alexa.’ ChatGPT included Artificial Intelligence in its list of anticipated changes in the industry, but didn’t have the self-awareness to identify itself in this category.

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Me: What will healthcare be like in 2033? 

ChatGPT: Answer pulled on February 22, 2023, from https://chat.openai.com/chat 

As an AI language model, I cannot predict the future with certainty, but I can provide some insights based on current trends and technological advancements.  Can

Here are some potential ways healthcare could change by 2033: 

1. Personalized medicine: By 2033, healthcare may become more personalized, with doctors using advanced genetic testing and analysis to tailor treatments to individual patients based on their genetic makeup. 

2. Virtual healthcare: With the advancements in telemedicine and remote healthcare, healthcare in 2033 could become more accessible and convenient for patients. People may be able to access medical consultations, diagnoses, and treatments from the comfort of their own homes. 

3. Artificial intelligence and machine learning: The use of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms will likely become more prevalent in healthcare in 2033. These technologies may be used to analyze patient data and provide more accurate diagnoses, develop personalized treatment plans, and even help with medical research. 

4. Nanotechnology: Nanotechnology has the potential to revolutionize medicine by allowing doctors to deliver medications and treatments more precisely to targeted areas of the body. By 2033, nanotechnology could be used to develop advanced drug delivery systems that are more effective and have fewer side effects. 

5. Genomic medicine: By 2033, genomic medicine could become more widespread, with doctors using genomic data to make more accurate diagnoses and develop personalized treatment plans. 

6. 3D printing: 3D printing has already been used in the medical field to create customized prosthetics and implants, and by 2033, it could become more common in other areas of healthcare, such as tissue engineering and drug development. 

7. Wearable technology: Wearable technology, such as smartwatches and fitness trackers, has already been used to monitor physical activity and health indicators. By 2033, wearable technology could become even more advanced, allowing for continuous monitoring of vital signs and providing real-time feedback to doctors. 

   Overall, healthcare in 2033 is likely to be more personalized, accessible, and technology-driven. However, it's important to note that many factors, including economic, political, and social factors, can impact the future of healthcare. 

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Much of our current understanding of computing capabilities is informed by the pace of development to date, often driven by our own understanding of Moore’s Law. However, in the 2010s, AI developers began working with a network model more similar to the many connection points of neurons in the human brain. The new structure of networks enabled computing capacity to accelerate further, leading to advanced AI chips and quantum computing.  

A quantum computer tested by Google in 2019 was more than 1 billion times faster than a traditional computer. It was able to perform a computing test in 200 seconds that would have taken a computer at that time hundreds of thousands of years to perform. We cannot yet comprehend what this type of analytic, computing, and intelligence capability could bring to our world. (Note that my understanding of developments in quantum computing are informed by The Exponential Age by Azeem Azhar).  

Like any change, these developments have the potential to create new advantages for economic leaders in healthcare. But they could also spark an opportunity for a more level playing field, or even strategic advantage for nimble and focused healthcare organizations. Indeed, rather than ‘deep pockets’, perhaps the path to ensuring that an organization’s mission is fulfilled in the healthcare landscape of the future is to develop an ongoing channel to monitor and explore the evolving landscape. 

Many healthcare organizations have had protected markets and revenue streams for so long that they have enjoyed the luxury of foregoing an innovation function. In fact, many of the ‘innovations’ on a strategic portfolio may be new to the organization but are really catching up with an evolving industry standard. With virtually every sector in our economy exploring the role it can play in healthcare, we cannot assume that our market protection will continue into the future.  

Most of us didn’t see ChatGPT coming, but with an internal innovation function there could be a channel and organizational muscle memory for recognizing and exploring the implications. Such an ‘Innovation Studio’ would include monitoring the landscape, organizing innovations in a way that they can be prioritized, and exploring how they could be an opportunity, risk, or adjacent insight. At Spring Street Exchange, we provide this service to enable a healthcare organization to stay current without becoming overwhelmed.  

No one is too busy to think about the future. The future is here every day. Let’s welcome the opportunity as a means to drive healthcare to what it could be.